Moment of Zen

This is the latest Moment of Zen:
"The Bradley Effect - Still A Threat Today?"

As you can see, this blog entry deals with the question of wether the Bradley Effect nowadays can still influence the election results in comparison to the number in the polls before or not.

In the run-up of the 2008 elections, many experts and political scientists were wondering if Obama could still fail although he seemed to be uncatchable for John McCain. They drew analogies to the election campaign of Tom Bradley in 1982 who really lost this election although he was superior to his opponent according to the polls before.
I think that this question is legitimate, because also in the 2008 elections a black politician fought against a white one. Obama showed that he did not fail due to the Bradley effect, but that he won almost as predicted. Why has there not been this special effect? Well, I do not know the ´82 elections for the gouvernor in California to that extent as I got it in Obama´s case, but I still think that first of all the politician has to "reach" the population and have fantastic ideas how to improve politics, economy, environment and so on and so forth. Secondly, this man must have a great charisma and authenticity to make the people trust him. I do not know if this was the case more than 25 years ago, but Obama had these character traits and political abilities - that is why he won.
Furthermore, TIMES HAVE CHANGED (but still, Obama calls for a further change ;) ):
I am of the idea that the vast majority of society has become much more liberal and open to new ideas and cultures, so that a black man can become the world´s most powerful man.
Nevertheless, one is absolutely NOT allowed to forget what has happened in history (especially WW2). Here in Germany the right-wing parties gain strength and one really has to fight against this to prevent these parties from winning seats in the German Bundestag.

But let us get back to America now: As I can judge the matter, Tom Bradley lost because many many voters only stated their support for this candidate, so that no one could accuse them of racism and other related things. When casting the ballots they voted according to their real opinion.
As mentioned above, one has to recognize that times have changed and that most of the people really concentrate on the candidate´s progam and his working abilities. It won´t be long till the world has the first female president - society is open for that! Liberality and Open-Mindedness!

In conclusion, to answer the Moment of Zen, one can say that the Bradley Effect is not a threat anymore in the "Western civilized world". But in contrast I think that this could happen in the Middle East (where ballott-rigging is a daily occurence: see blog entries below!) or in Asian countries, if a candidate does not correspond to the "regular" view. Censorship also looms large in this case.

Sincerely, see you in class!